Recycling Markets 2024: A Year of Some Big Ups and DownsRecycling Markets 2024: A Year of Some Big Ups and Downs

When I speak about recycling markets, I always start with a picture of full recycling bins. I ask the audience what’s in the bins. The answer is simple. Raw materials looking for a buyer. Buyers want consistent quality and consistent quantities from their sellers. Both want an acceptable price.

We recycle for many reasons. We can save resources, lower greenhouse gas emissions, create jobs, etc. But if we don’t have buyers for those materials, we won’t achieve those goals. We recycle only when our “discards” are turned into new products.

Anyone who runs a recycling program learns this reality very quickly. They learn that recyclables are commodities whose prices fluctuate based on the economy and supply demand for each raw material. They learn that markets are hot some years, cold others and like 2024, they can go both ways.

The good news? Comparing mid-December national average prices for curbside recyclables with those a year ago shows higher prices for PET beverage bottles, natural HDPE containers (mostly milk jugs), polypropylene packages (mostly for dairy products), aluminum cans and residential mixed paper (RMP). On the downside, prices for colored HDPE (laundry detergent, shampoo and a host of other consumer products), steel cans and old corrugated containers (OCC aka “cardboard” boxes) were lower.

The reasons for these ups and downs vary widely. Let’s start with the paper, the most important raw material in our bins by weight and volume. Paper’s two-year rise and recent decline is one big 2024 markets story. Prices for both OCC and RMP started rising in December 2022 as new recycled content capacity unleashed demand. At that time, OCC’s national average was a bit above $29 a ton while RMP was “sold” at negative $1 a ton. This summer, OCC hit a high slightly over $107 a ton and RMP was at $70. In the fall, they finally started sliding down. Their decline was inevitable as supply finally outpaced demand. OCC’s national average is now $72.81 per ton. It’s slightly lower than a year ago but still much higher than two years ago. The same with RMP, now at $40.25 per ton. Prices for both would be a bit higher if export markets weren’t so soft. (All prices are from RecyclingMarkets.net).

Weaker prices for both paper grades are normal in the late fall and winter. Mills have made the boxes needed for holiday shopping. Many operate on a lower production schedule and take maintenance downtime production until box demand comes back. I expect paper to return to its normal cycle with prices beginning to rise in February or March as demand increases and supply is lower.

Prices for three plastics, PET, natural HDPE and PP were higher while colored HDPE was lower. Each resin has unique markets. PET bottle demand rises in the spring when companies begin making more bottles in anticipation of warm weather and higher beverage sales. Lower winter and spring supply pushes recycled PET prices up. That normally lasts until early August when production goes down in anticipation of lower beverage demand in the colder months. Higher supplies and lower demand drive prices down. Prices did go down but remain higher than normal for this time of year. PET’s national price in mid-December was 15.41 cents per pound, up from 11.03 cents. Export demand from Mexico helped keep the price higher than normal. 

Natural HDPE’s dramatic price rise is another big 2024 markets story.  The current national average price of 66.19 cents a pound is more than double where it was a year ago. Last year’s price was near the bottom of an epic fall that began in May 2023 when natural HDPE was a little over 75 cents a pound. By July it had fallen by 53 cents. Apparently, a brand that used its recycled content budget on one product sold it to new buyers who had no interest in recycled content. The price slowly rebounded and began surging this summer. Many consumer product companies appear to be in a last-minute rush to meet their recycled content goals. They value natural HDPE resin because it can be dyed any color. Unless brand demand remains steady, the price is likely to go down in the winter.

Polypropylene is also up this year with a national average price of 9.06 cents a pound, up from just under 5 cents a year ago. Demand appears to be driven by new polypropylene recycling capacity which needs to build up supply lines. 

Colored HDPE went down dramatically in 2024. This third big markets story has a mid-December national average price of only 5.44 cents per pound, down substantially from 18.31 cents a year ago. Because the dye used to color HDPE resin cannot be taken out of the resin, most colored HDPE is used to make water and sewage pipes. Colored HDPE prices tend to rise and fall with new housing and other construction activity. New construction starts are highest in the spring as are colored HDPE prices.

That leaves us with the two metals. Aluminum cans, like natural HDPE, are going gangbusters. Their national average price is 86.88 cents per pound while was 61.13 cents last year.  Aluminum cans normally follow the same supply-demand cycle as PET bottles. Prices rise in the spring and fall in midsummer. This year, higher demand from new recycled can sheet capacity building up its supply lines and increased use of aluminum cans for non-alcoholic beverages has driven prices up in the face of lower winter supply.

Steel cans are on a downswing, falling from $210.31 per ton to 173.75. Construction activity is off. In addition, China, the world’s largest steelmaker, has a weak economy. It is accused of flooding world markets with steel. While can prices have gone up a bit recently, I don’t expect a quick return to last year’s prices.

Next year will be interesting. Will the US economy continue to grow? Will East Coast dockworkers go on strike in January? Will the construction industry have a strong second quarter? What about the impact of threatened tariffs? Stayed tuned.