Will Slashing Plastic Production 40 Percent By 2040 Bring Climate Goals Within Reach?Will Slashing Plastic Production 40 Percent By 2040 Bring Climate Goals Within Reach?

Plastic production will hit 736 million tons in 2040, with 30 million tons of it leaking into the environment at the end of its life, projects the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).  Some countries have responded by setting a hopeful goal: reducing plastic production by 40 percent by 2040.

A Eunomia report explores what it would take to get to “40x40,” including required recycling and materials reduction rates. And it assesses how far a 40 percent reduction could go in helping to keep global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (a Paris Agreement ambition).
Here are some key study findings:

“Our research over recent years shows that aligning with the Paris Agreement requires swift and decisive action from the plastics industry. This most recent analysis finds that limiting virgin plastics production could be a pivotal step in bridging the gap between current conditions and necessary targets,” says Simon Hann, Eunomia’s lifecycle specialist and the report’s author.

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Eunomia looked at carbon impact, illustrating with polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE), which account for 40 percent of global plastics demand and around 35 percent of its CO2 emissions.

Two scenarios were explored and compared:  BAU production activity vs reduced PP and PE production and demand.

A conclusion: even by slashing plastic production 40 percent by 2040, combined with decarbonization efforts, emissions would drop to a point where industry would exceed the 1.5°C carbon budget by 40 percent. But that 40 percent breach represents a huge drop over the BAU scenario, which would result in a 360 percent budget breach.

Making meaningful progress would require both “significant action” along the value chain, and robust industry decarbonization efforts, Simon advises.

He looks beyond 2040 to assess potential impact.

Relying only on industry decarbonization without significantly reducing production would result in cumulative emissions of 15Gt by 2050 and 17Gt by 2060. Therefore, he says, reaching a Paris-aligned trajectory would necessitate adjusting the 40x40 target and measures to achieve that target up to and beyond 2050.

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If the current demand trajectory is maintained, the 40x40 target is unlikely to be achievable.

Today’s estimated 10 percent global recycling rate would have to increase more than sixfold, and processing capacity would have to grow by almost 10 times in 15 years—pushing the limits of technical feasibility.  Most studies assessing realistic goals suggest aiming to achieve 40 to 45 percent recycling over a similar timeframe.

Still, in comparing other research findings, Simon does not dismiss the possibility of a 40 percent reduction by 2040. Though plastic demand would need to remain at or below projected 2025 levels. And the recycling rate would have to reach 43 percent, necessitating a fourfold increase in global capacity.

And he reasserts (as he showed with the PE and PP scenarios) that even with substantial plastic demand reduction, and significant value chain decarbonization, the plastics industry has plenty of work to do to get close to international climate goals.

While a 40x40 limit on primary production supported by demand reduction are critical decarbonization drivers, focusing solely on these will still risk breaching even the higher 1.7°C budget, he cautions.

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“Therefore, coordinated efforts across the value chain, product lifecycle, and international collaboration will be essential. All control measures in the internationally legally binding instrument [a global effort to address plastic pollution] should be viewed with a climate lens to create a holistic package of policies,” he says.

Eunomia’s report launched at COP29 in November 2024, ahead of the INC-5 plastic treaty negotiations in Busan, Republic of Korea. INC-5 drew 170 nations and 440 organizations with the goal of finalizing a legally binding treaty to combat plastic pollution.

INC’s work has been ongoing since 2022, and what was intended to be the last in a series of contentious sessions did not end with a signed agreement as hoped. The plastics industry and environmental advocates remain polarized. 

At the heart of the stalemate has been discord around capping plastic production, addressing plastic products and chemicals of concern, and monies to support treaty term implementation in developing countries.

Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) who convened INC stated it is clear that there is persisting divergence, and more time is needed to address the critical areas.  But Andersen kept an upbeat tone pointing to progress in developing treaty language, as well as a better understanding of country positions and shared challenges. A new session dubbed as INC-5.2 will convene in 2025 to discuss draft text.

With up to half the carbon budget for plastics potentially spent by 2025, the next five years will be critical in shaping the trajectory, Eunomia’s report concludes.

Simon advises: to facilitate this transition, “The international legally binding treaty should include a global reduction target to act as the ‘guiding star’ for measuring ambition in ending plastic pollution and keeping 1.5°C alive for the plastics industry.”